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Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B

Received: 2 December 2022     Accepted: 28 December 2022     Published: 10 January 2023
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Abstract

Population forecasting models play an important role in analyzing current population processes and predicting their future development. The Republic of the Congo saw population growth from 1.02 million to 5.66 million people between 1960 and 2021. This is an increase of 455.6% over 61 years. Urbanization is a trend that is accelerating and growing at a 3.2% yearly rate with the country's current economic situation, which is not ideal. The objective of this study is to show and forecast the population growth rate in Congo B using the ARIMAX system. Based on the data of per capita GDP and population growth rate in Congo B from 1982 to 2019, this paper uses per capita GDP as the input variable and population growth rate as the response variable and uses the ARIMAX model for research. The predictions for Congo B's population growth rate in 2020-2024 were correct. The results were 11.77‰, 11.60‰, 11.55‰, 11.34‰, 11.03‰, respectively. This indicates a country with a lower population growth rate. The results of this work allow the government and Congolese leaders to use them as a reference when creating a baseline and responsible growth strategy because they show that the rate of population expansion in Congo B will slow over the next five years and that migration will remain moderate.

Published in International Journal of Business and Economics Research (Volume 12, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11
Page(s) 1-8
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Population Growth Rate, Per Capita GDP, Arimax Model, SAS Software

References
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[3] Jie Dai and Shuping Chen. College of Mathematics, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China The application of ARIMA model in forecasting population data to cite this article: Jie Dai and Shuping Chen 2019 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 1324 012100 View the article online for updates and enhancement.
[4] Yuniar Farida, Mayandah Farmita, Nurissaidah Ulinnuha, Dian Yuliati Forecasting Population of Madiun Regency Using ARIMA Method CAUCHY –Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Volume 7 (3) (2022), Pages 420-431 p-ISSN: 2086-0382; e-ISSN: 2477-3344.
[5] Guarnaccia C, Graziuso G, Mancini S, Quartieri J. On the Use of ARIMA Models to Predict Urban Sound Pressure Levels. InForum Acusticum 2020 Dec 7 (pp. 1677-1683).
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[7] Tu X L and Tu H Y 2009 A Comparative study of ARIMA and exponential smoothing method in population Prediction in China [J]. Statistics and Decision 16 21-23.
[8] Farida Y, Farmita M, Ulinnuha N, Yuliati D. Forecasting Population of Madiun Regency Using ARIMA Method. CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi. 2022 Oct 11; 7 (3): 420-31.
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  • APA Style

    Itoba Ongagna Ipaka Safnat Kaito, Zhang Ding Hai. (2023). Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 12(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11

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    ACS Style

    Itoba Ongagna Ipaka Safnat Kaito; Zhang Ding Hai. Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B. Int. J. Bus. Econ. Res. 2023, 12(1), 1-8. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11

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    AMA Style

    Itoba Ongagna Ipaka Safnat Kaito, Zhang Ding Hai. Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B. Int J Bus Econ Res. 2023;12(1):1-8. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11,
      author = {Itoba Ongagna Ipaka Safnat Kaito and Zhang Ding Hai},
      title = {Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B},
      journal = {International Journal of Business and Economics Research},
      volume = {12},
      number = {1},
      pages = {1-8},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijber.20231201.11},
      abstract = {Population forecasting models play an important role in analyzing current population processes and predicting their future development. The Republic of the Congo saw population growth from 1.02 million to 5.66 million people between 1960 and 2021. This is an increase of 455.6% over 61 years. Urbanization is a trend that is accelerating and growing at a 3.2% yearly rate with the country's current economic situation, which is not ideal. The objective of this study is to show and forecast the population growth rate in Congo B using the ARIMAX system. Based on the data of per capita GDP and population growth rate in Congo B from 1982 to 2019, this paper uses per capita GDP as the input variable and population growth rate as the response variable and uses the ARIMAX model for research. The predictions for Congo B's population growth rate in 2020-2024 were correct. The results were 11.77‰, 11.60‰, 11.55‰, 11.34‰, 11.03‰, respectively. This indicates a country with a lower population growth rate. The results of this work allow the government and Congolese leaders to use them as a reference when creating a baseline and responsible growth strategy because they show that the rate of population expansion in Congo B will slow over the next five years and that migration will remain moderate.},
     year = {2023}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B
    AU  - Itoba Ongagna Ipaka Safnat Kaito
    AU  - Zhang Ding Hai
    Y1  - 2023/01/10
    PY  - 2023
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11
    T2  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
    JF  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
    JO  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
    SP  - 1
    EP  - 8
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-756X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20231201.11
    AB  - Population forecasting models play an important role in analyzing current population processes and predicting their future development. The Republic of the Congo saw population growth from 1.02 million to 5.66 million people between 1960 and 2021. This is an increase of 455.6% over 61 years. Urbanization is a trend that is accelerating and growing at a 3.2% yearly rate with the country's current economic situation, which is not ideal. The objective of this study is to show and forecast the population growth rate in Congo B using the ARIMAX system. Based on the data of per capita GDP and population growth rate in Congo B from 1982 to 2019, this paper uses per capita GDP as the input variable and population growth rate as the response variable and uses the ARIMAX model for research. The predictions for Congo B's population growth rate in 2020-2024 were correct. The results were 11.77‰, 11.60‰, 11.55‰, 11.34‰, 11.03‰, respectively. This indicates a country with a lower population growth rate. The results of this work allow the government and Congolese leaders to use them as a reference when creating a baseline and responsible growth strategy because they show that the rate of population expansion in Congo B will slow over the next five years and that migration will remain moderate.
    VL  - 12
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • College of Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, China

  • College of Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, China

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